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Israel’s and America’s attacks on Iran may prove pivotal for the Middle East if all the blows the clerical regime has absorbed since October 7, 2023, lead eventually to the collapse of the Islamic Republic. If the theocracy remains, however, or if an Islamist military dictatorship replaces it, the picture is a little different: Sunni-ruled Syria and its ally, Turkey, will benefit from the fact that Iranian allies will no longer dominate the northern Levant.
Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
