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Chris Stirewalt /

The Best Case for Trump Winning. And Also Kamala.

What the swing-state shift, approval ratings, and turnout tell us—and what they don’t.
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Photograph of Donald Trump by Peter Zay/AFP/Getty Images. Photograph of Kamala Harris by Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images.

We’ve entered the Twin Peaks phase of public opinion research for the 2024 election: widely open to various interpretations and, at the end, more annoying than charming. 

In an average of high-quality national polls, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 0.2 of a point.

Chris Stirewalt is a contributing writer for The Dispatch, the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, co-host of the Ink Stained Wretches podcast, and author of Broken News, a book on media and politics.

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