Sizable Senate Majority in Reach for GOP

The presidential race could hardly be closer, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 2.2 points in our national average, just at the very, very edge of safety for a Democrat on the swing state shift.

Making it worse for lovers of certitude, there is a slew of new high-quality polls from the swing states, but they do not show any consensus. Is Harris ahead in Pennsylvania or is Trump leading there? Yes and yes.

Most annoyingly, assuming a typical number of protest and minor-party votes, there’s still something like 2.5 points worth of undecided voters out there. That’s plenty to still include the possibilities of either candidate sweeping all seven swing states or something very close to an even split. With 24 days to go, anybody who tells you they know how this race will tip at the end is as full of beans as the candidates are.

While all those new polls have done nothing to clarify the presidential election, the surveys—and the effects of time and television advertising on the electorate—have brought some greater clarity on the Senate side. 

We’ve been telling you for months how unlikely it would be for the big gaps between the Senate candidates and their parties’ presidential nominees to persist. And, lo, gaze upon the work of the lower-propensity voter. In three Republican-leaning battleground states, Montana, Texas, and Florida, the GOP candidates are not quite breathing easily, but seem unlikely to lose. 

Florida and Texas would be holds for Republicans, but Montana would be a flip from blue to red and could give the GOP the majority. Remember that with Democrats already writing off West Virginia, Dems would have to hold every seat they currently have and win the presidency just to put Tim Walz in position to be the tiebreaker as vice president. If challenger Tim Sheehey knocks off Sen. Jon Tester, as seems increasingly likely, Republicans would be assured at least a 51-seat majority.

But how many more might they get?

If we assume that the late deciders will vote mostly along party lines, the number for Republicans could be much higher. And the size of any GOP majority has real consequences, whomever wins the presidency.

At, say, 53 seats, a Republican majority would be big enough for party leaders to be able to let apostate members like Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski break ranks and still move legislation. At 54 or more, they could even steamroll traditional conservatives like Thom Tillis and James Lankford to advance—or kill—bills.

In a potential Harris administration, a bigger Republican majority in the Senate would mean she would be forced to the negotiating table from the very beginning on taxes and spending. Maybe most significant, her Cabinet and judicial appointments would look profoundly different depending on how deep the Republican ranks run.

Conversely, in a Trump administration, a bigger Republican Senate majority would mean that the chances of Senate Republicans acting as a check on the MAGA agenda would decline sharply. With Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stepping down from that post and Sens. Mitt Romney and Mike Braun both retiring, the new Senate will be more MAGA, however large the Republican majority. But with three or four votes to spare, team Trump would face far less resistance on policies and appointments that might be impossible in a 51-49 Senate.

A big Republican margin may not be the most likely scenario, but it’s certainly looking like a stronger possibility. 

If we just use the 538 Senate polling averages for reference, we see there’s plenty of room for Republican gains that just a month ago looked unlikely. Here are, in order of Democratic vulnerability, the averages in first three possible flips:

Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D): 47.9% (+2.3)
Bernie Moreno (R): 45.6% 
Undecided/Other: 6.5%

Michigan

Elissa Slotkin (D): 48.3% (+4.2)
Mike Rogers (R): 44.1%
Undecided/Other: 7.6%

Pennsylvania

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D): 48.7% (+5.0)
Dave McCormick (R): 43.7%
Undecided/Other: 7.6%

Note that in each of these races, the raw number for Democratic incumbent or, in Michigan where Rep. Slotkin is running to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, is substantially under 50 percent with more than enough of the vote still up for grabs to put the Republican over the top. In Ohio, where Trump is on track for a big win, it’s particularly easy to imagine the GOP candidate getting nearly all of the votes that remain.

If Trump ends up outperforming the polls by margins similar to 2016 and 2020, it’s not unthinkable that Republicans could grab Michigan as well. Pennsylvania is a harder pull, given Casey’s durable popularity in the commonwealth, but we can certainly expect something much closer than the current margin.

Next, we have the special case of Nevada:

Nevada

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D): 49.7% (+9.2)
Sam Brown (R): 40.6%
Undecided/Other: 9.7%

Rosen is very close to 50 percent and the high undecided is probably mostly attributable to the fact challenger Brown is little known in state politics. But with nearly 10 percent not locked down, it’s not impossible to imagine Nevada as the big upset of the night.

That brings us to the longest shots:

Arizona

Ruben Gallego (D): 50.2% (+7.7)
Kari Lake (R): 42.5%
Undecided/Other: 7.3%

Wisconsin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D): 50.3% (+4.9)
Eric Hovde (R): 45.4%
Undecided/Other: 4.3%

In Arizona, Lake has the opposite circumstance of most of the Republicans on this list: She is very well known. Lake, a former longtime local broadcaster who ran a wild gubernatorial campaign two years ago, may be the most famous politician in Arizona. But even she can expect to get the lion’s share of the late deciders. To have Rep. Gallego already above 50 percent, though, suggests he will be hard, if not impossible, to catch.

The farthest reach for Republicans is in Wisconsin, where the presidential race is close, close, close but incumbent Sen. Baldwin is substantially ahead of her challenger with a relative pittance of undecided voters. Even so, if they come out of the woodwork to vote for Trump again this time, it could get hairy for the Democrat.

Bearing all that in mind, it starts to look like Republicans are well within reach of 52, with the chances for a 53rd or 54th seat not inconsiderable. And if that were the case, we might be looking at either a captive Harris presidency or MAGA unchained depending on which way the final voters tilt at the top of the ticket.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

STATSHOT

General Election

Kamala Harris: 48.4% (↓ 0.8 points from last week)
Donald Trump: 46.2% (↓ 0.4)

[Average includes: Pew Research Center: Trump 47% – Harris 48%; Ipsos/Reuters: Trump 45% – Harris 47%; NYT/Siena: Trump 46% – Harris 49%; TIPP: Trump 45% – Harris 48%; Marist/NPR/PBS: Trump 48% – Harris 50%]

Generic Ballot

Democrats: 48.0% (no change from last week)
Republicans: 46.2% (no change)

[Average includes: Marist/NPR/PBS: 47% Democrats – 47% Republicans; Emerson: 47% Democrats – 46% Republicans; Echelon: 50% Democrats – 45% Republicans; NBC News: 48% Democrats – 46% Republicans; Monmouth: 48% Democrats – 47% Republicans] 

TIME OUT: GIVE HIM A HOME WHERE THE BUFFALO ROAM 

Writer Drew Magary takes a humorist’s tour of one of our national treasures for Outside: “The U.S. has a near-infinite supply of clueless tourists such as myself, much to the dismay of our National Park Service. Yellowstone, our most famous national park thanks to Kevin Costner, welcomes 4.5 million of us each year. Like all of our parks, Yellowstone takes in tourists not only for the revenue but to remind them that the physical country they reside in is a marvel well beyond their comprehension. … This is why Outside sent me to the park just a few weeks ago, during one of the busiest times of the year. … Maybe I’d look down my nose at the tourists around me only to end up as wolf food myself. Like most other Yellowstone visitors, I was not trained for the outdoors, I relish doing s–t that posted signs yell at me not to do, and I often daydream about fighting bears (and winning!). I find danger tempting, which isn’t a good thing given that I can no longer swim a single pool lap without taking a break. Are people like me responsible enough to visit one of our national treasures without breaking it? Do we, as a population, know how to do national parks?”

THREE WEEKS OUT, CAMPAIGNS ZERO IN ON PENNSYLVANIA

New York Times: “Welcome to the United States of Pennsylvania. There may be seven main battlegrounds in the race for the White House in 2024, all of which could prove crucial. But Pennsylvania stands apart as the state that top strategists for both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump have circled as the likeliest to tip the election. … Ms. Harris, Mr. Trump and their allies [are] set to spend $350 million just on television ads in Pennsylvania — $142 million more than the next closest state and more than Michigan and Wisconsin combined. … Democrats are bullish that the party has won key races for governor and the Senate in recent years, including in 2022. But Republicans are optimistic because voter registration has swung sharply toward the G.O.P. … Mr. Trump’s campaign spent more than $80,000 to show one longer video on Google’s platforms, just in Philadelphia, about Ms. Harris’s shortcomings for the local Black community. Ms. Harris, meanwhile, has been running online ads in majority Hispanic cities like Reading.”

Dems hold ground-game advantage across Keystone State: The Dispatch: “The field office for the Kamala Harris campaign downtown on Eighth Street [in Erie, Pennsylvania’ was bustling with activity Tuesday morning. … A few miles west, at a unit in a strip mall just outside the city limits, there was markedly less happening at the joint headquarters for the Donald Trump campaign and the Erie County Republican Party. … Operatives in both parties say Republicans are behind Democrats on their voter turnout efforts, both nationally and specifically here in Pennsylvania. … The Harris campaign says it has 14 paid staff based in the Erie area, compared to just three for the Trump campaign. … Such voter turnout disparity isn’t just in Erie. … In and around Pittsburgh, the well-oiled array of machinery to get out the Democratic vote—unions, civic groups, black churches—is running as strong as ever, while the field offices for the Harris campaign and local Democratic parties are full of volunteers, just like in Erie.” 

Harris campaign deploys Bill Clinton to target rural voters: CNN: “Former President Bill Clinton will hit the trail this weekend to begin what is expected to be a very targeted push across battleground states. … The former president will seek to appeal to rural voters, among whom polls have shown Vice President Kamala Harris is performing worse than some of the last few Democratic nominees, particularly among younger Black men. … Clinton will start with stops in Georgia on Sunday and Monday, with a bus tour next week in North Carolina expected to follow, pending recovery from the hurricanes. … Clinton won’t appear at rallies. Going back to a kind of campaigning that he hasn’t done since before he became the ‘Comeback Kid’ in the 1992 New Hampshire primary, Clinton’s schedule is for local fairs and porch rallies. … He will talk about the economy, convinced that this is the issue that the election will come down to for the voters on the fence.” 

GOP PLAYS DEFENSE IN RUBY-RED NEBRASKA

The Hill: “Republicans are looking to avoid a disaster in the Nebraska Senate race amid signs that an independent candidate could be giving incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R) a run for her money. Independent Senate candidate and political newcomer Dan Osborn is challenging Fischer for her seat. … Osborn, who has leaned into his background as a steamfitter who led a major strike against Kellogg’s in 2021 in Omaha, has started to pick up traction in the Nebraska Senate race. … Internal polling released by Osborn’s campaign showed the independent ahead of Fischer by 1 percentage point. … The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) — the Senate GOP’s campaign arm — and the conservative super PAC Heartland Resurgence have started to pour in money of their own, painting Osborn ‘as a Democrat in disguise’ and tying him to progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).”

Allred pulls in a staggering $30 million in third quarter: Texas Tribune: “U.S. Rep. Colin Allred raised $30.3 million for his Senate campaign in the third quarter of the year, outpacing U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s haul over the same three-month period. … Cruz, the Republican incumbent, raised more than $21 million across his three fundraising accounts, which include a leadership PAC that cannot spend directly on Cruz’s reelection. … The fundraising deficit is nothing new for Cruz, who has struggled to keep pace with Allred this cycle after being vastly outraised by 2018 Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. … The fundraising news comes as Allred appears to be narrowing the gap in a race that Cruz has led from the start. Allred has been routinely polling within the margin of error with Cruz, and national Democrats announced last month they were including Texas in a multimillion-dollar ad buy from their Senate campaign arm.” 

BRIEFLY

Poll: Scott Perry trails in Pennsylvania battleground district—ABC 27 [Harrisburg]

Poll: Gabe Vasquez holding strong in New Mexico’s 2nd District—KOB [Albuquerque]

New Jersey Dems line up behind Mikie Sherrill for governor—New Jersey Globe

Dems sound the alarm over state legislature fundraising—Politico

WITHIN EARSHOT: GOTCHA 

“I’m obviously not Joe Biden. So that would be one change. But also, I think it’s important to say, with 28 days to go, I’m not Donald Trump.”—Democratic nominee Kamala Harris describes what the major changes would be under a Harris administration during an interview with Stephen Colbert. 

MAILBAG

“How reliable is statewide polling likely to be in Georgia and (especially) North Carolina, which were hit so hard by Hurricane Helene? The rescue and recovery operations will continue well past November 5, and I’ve read media reports saying election officials are unsure whether and where some polling sites could operate, or if mail service will be dependable. Aside from the horrific losses we have seen and will see, could this disaster alter the outcome in one or both of these important states?”—Rick Henderson, Raleigh, North Carolina

Mr. Henderson,

I know you were far from the worst of it, but I hope you and all of yours came through unharmed. And it’s certainly not unreasonable to wonder about the electoral implications.

I don’t get the sense that Georgia is dealing with anything like the devastation visited on western North Carolina, but since your home state was decided last time by 74,483 votes (1.3 points) and Georgia an even more astonishingly narrow 11,779 votes (just two-tenths of a point) even a small disruption could make a difference. Even so, let’s focus on the hardest hit spot.

State officials are going to great lengths to make it as easy as possible for storm-afflicted North Carolinians to cast their ballots, setting up special accommodations for the 13 most affected counties.

There were 447,637 ballots cast in those counties four years ago, with a pronounced Republican lean. Donald Trump netted a 43,304-vote advantage out of the region altogether. He still would have won the state if not a single ballot came from those counties, although by just 31,179 votes. The state as a whole looks to be much closer this time than it did at this point four years ago, so that’s worrisome for Republicans.

But we know that it’s not that no votes will be counted, but which voters are most likely to be affected. 

The good news for Democrats is that their voter strongholds are in relatively urban areas such as hipster-y Asheville (Buncombe County, Biden +34,103) and Boone, home to Appalachian State University (Watauga County, Biden + 2,671). But there are relatively populated Trump areas, too. Hendersonville and Henderson County, just south of Asheville, is pretty big and gave Trump a net 12,821 votes in 2020. Haywood County, on the west side of the Asheville metro area, was good for a net 9,690 votes for Trump four years ago.

Rutherford County, home to Lake Lure and lots of GOP-leaning retirees, is a little smaller, but the Trump advantage was even more lopsided, netting out 15,756 for the red team in 2020. A similar story in McDowell County, just to Rutherford’s north, where there were about 23,000 votes cast in 2020, but Trump won nearly 17,000 of them. 

But it’s the other, even smaller, but equally lopsided counties—like Mitchell, Avery, Ashe, and Yancey—that has Republicans nervous. Recovery efforts in these more remote places will be harder and services more difficult to come by. It’s not crazy to think that, in places where whole towns were washed away, turnout would be radically affected.

On the other hand, wealthier, more cosmopolitan residents in places like Asheville and Boone may be more likely to leave the area for other locations during the recovery phase, while rural residents may tend to be more closely tied to the places they live. 

It will remain one of the mysteries we finally get answers to on election night, and we will be watching closely.

All best,

c

“Native of Manchester, New Hampshire here who remembers the Puritan pre-chicken tenders [from last week’s Time Out] as well as the Goldenrod. Others in my family worked at the latter. I think the tenders at either place are special, but the duck sauce tips it towards the Puritan. No trip to my hometown is complete without a stop in the Backroom. (My sister still lives there.) Am I to take it Mr. Stirewalt is also a fan of the Backroom?”—King Banaian, St. Cloud, Minnesota

Mr. Banaian,

My appetites are obviously not only well-known, but they’re obviously predictable. There are many things to enjoy on my quadrennial pilgrimages to New Hampshire. And while the state has become a culinary marvel, especially in Portsmouth and the Seacoast, I must confess that I mostly associate the Granite State with diner food. 

To take nothing away from the famous Red Arrow and its ambiance or the retro vibes at Margies—or even the reliability of The Common Man—but yes, it is The Puritan Backroom for the win. And while the tenders are indeed worthy of national recognition, don’t sleep on the lamb kabobs or the broccoli puffs!

Hungrily,

c

You should email us! Write to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name—at least first and last—and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the commendable Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

CUTLINE CONTEST: THE WAY WE WERE 

Our photo of former Rep. Liz Cheney campaigning with Vice President Kamala Harris inspired lots of good pop culture gags, but the winner was the one who wrote his joke so perfectly to the emotions on display in the picture and with a perfect political commentary to boot:

“Overheard at today’s campaign event, ‘She [Harris] used to look at me that way,’ pondered progressive darling Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.”—Dan Burch, Turlock, California

Winner, Dream Big Division:

“I think she likes my new slogan idea: We suck less than Trump!”—John Rawls, Castle Pines, Colorado

Winner, Politics of Density Division:

“Physicists baffled as matter and antimatter converge without explosion.”—Linda McKee, DuBois, Pennsylvania

Winner, Simon Says Division:

“Oscar and Felix have nothing on us!”—Donnie Bishop, New Castle, Virginia

Winner, Appleton Exiles Division:

“I said to Liz, ‘Standing tall, on the wings of my dream. [Laughter] Rise and fall, on the wings of my dream.’ Balki, right? Balki was unburdened by what had been.”—Tripp Whitbeck, Arlington, Virginia

Winner, Strange Bedfellows Division;

“Former Rep. Liz Cheney and Vice President Kamala Harris greet supporters outside the 31st Annual Matalin-Carville Strange Bedfellows Dinner.”—Jeremy Felden, Alpine, California

Winner, Cliffhanger Division:

“Preparing for whatever November outcome, the would-be protagonists spitball a remake of Thelma & Louise.”—Bill Ward, St. Augustine Beach, Florida

THEY HAD A GOOD THING GOING 

USA Today: “Video shows nearly 100 hungry raccoons — some allegedly aggressive — swarm a Washington state woman’s home last week in broad daylight looking for their next meal. The animals were captured on film after the resident from Kitsap County, across Puget Sound from Seattle, called 911 when the mammals surrounded her rural home preventing her from leaving the property. … The woman, who lives a few miles north of Suquamish, told deputies she has been feeding raccoons on her property for more than 38 years. … Only recently, she also said, had they become aggressive. ‘She said the normal raccoons are nice, but the new ones scare her,’ [sheriff’s office spokesperson Kevin McCarty] said. … The animals regularly approach the home and scratch on windows or walls at all hours of the day, officials said the woman told them, but on a recent day, she called for help because she said she could not leave the property.” 

Nate Moore contributed to this report.