Biden Steals the Spotlight in Seclusion

For the first time in 132 years, a major party this week nominated a former president to get his old job back—and did it with the services of his former aide fresh from prison for refusing to testify before Congress against that former president for trying to steal an election. 

The nominee is the first felon ever to hold that title.

The nominating convention began just two days after the former president was very nearly killed by an assassin’s bullet. The nominee was serenaded with a song called “American Badass” and drew his highest-profile endorsement from the world’s most famous professional wrestler.

It was a weird, wild, lavish, over-the-top four days of ecstasy and excess capped off with the longest acceptance speech on record.

So how could it possibly be that the Donald Trump show at the Republican National Convention was not the biggest political story of this week?

Upstaging all that shirt-ripping, testosterone-bathed spectacle was the quietest kind of story: A diminished, isolated president increasingly contemptuous of and held in contempt by his own party made his way home to Delaware, sick with the same virus that caused the pandemic that made his presidency possible. 

Joe Biden’s isolation, physical and political, is compelling in a way that no stage-managed spectacle could ever be. And while RNC planners and Trump might feel a little envy to be upstaged by Biden’s turn as King Lear, what could be better for Republicans than at the very moment when their party pledged its obeisance to Trump and his royal line that the Democratic incumbent was at his most pitiful?

What a split screen. In Milwaukee, strength and dominance. In Delaware, weakness and political impotence.

We couldn’t call Biden’s crumbling a surprise, exactly.

More than a year ago, when Biden fell down on stage at the Air Force Academy commencement ceremony, I wrote: 

Every time you think that the advantages of incumbency will assert themselves, Americans are reminded that he is not just very old, but old and unsteady. No matter how much Team Biden wants to emphasize his cagy negotiating skills and mastery of the legislative process, the lasting effect of the week in the memories of voters will more likely be of the president on his hands and knees again. They will be embarrassed both for him and by him.

I took hell from a bunch of Democrats back then, arguing to me that I was “obsessed with optics” and “feeding a false narrative from Trump.” One Democratic strategist whom I admire (and whose permission I obtained to make his statement public) wrote me, “A year from now, nobody is going to be talking about Biden’s age. Everyone will be talking about Trump’s crimes.”

I share those old messages not to say “I told you so,” but to demonstrate how willful disbelief can be stronger than the real thing. When we talk ourselves out of something, our passions prove powerful masters of our reasoning. We become more committed to the falsehood as we defend it because our own status and identity is now tangled up with it. 

David Hume via George Costanza: “Just remember. It’s not a lie … if you believe it.”

In the way that Republicans over and over and over again have convinced themselves that Trump is not a crook or a scoundrel—a tendency as effulgent this week as Trump’s name in lights—Democrats pretended that Biden was not too old and infirm for a second term until they actually believed it.

It wasn’t so much that they were lying to the rest of us; it was that they were lying to themselves. It wasn’t a plot so much as a delusion.

Biden seems to hope that, like Trump, he will be able to re-enchant his party, that Democrats will contextualize and rationalize their way back to seeing him as able and ready to serve. And he’s doing it in a Trumpy way, too. Biden is bluffing and blustering, smearing his critics, and making an implicit threat: Get back on board or I will ride this whole thing into the ground. 

But unlike Trump and the Republicans, Democrats continue to defy him. Every day, Biden dares his party to oppose him—and every day its members do. It’s something we haven’t seen in 50 years when, in the summer of 1974, Republicans decided that they would force Richard Nixon from power. Delusions don’t end quietly. 

The drama here is remarkable. You have the very relatable human-sized story of an old campaigner who won’t let go and his family and retainers who are struggling to make sense of the world without him at the center of it. But then there’s the whole world, sitting at the edge of its seat. What happens next for America? What are the implications? What if, God help us, something terrible happens at this moment?

Can he be made to go? If so, what then? Who? How? What intrigues and machinations are taking place behind the scenes of this play? 

Wrestlemania is a good show, sure, but it can’t match Shakespeare for suspense. 

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STATSHOT

Biden Job Performance
Average approval: 39.4%
Average disapproval: 59.2%
Net score: -19.8 points 

Change from one week ago: ↑ 0.8 points

Change from one month ago: ↓ 6.2 points

[Average includes: Fox News: 42% approve – 58% disapprove; ABC News/Washington Post: 39% approve-59% disapprove; Wall Street Journal: 39% approve – 60% disapprove; NewsNation: 43% approve – 57% disapprove; New York Times/Siena: 34% approve-62% disapprove]

General Election

Donald Trump: 42.4% (↑ 0.8 points from one week ago)
Joe Biden: 40.2%  (↑ 1.4)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr: 9.2% (↓ 0.6)

[Average includes: NPR/PBS/Marist: Trump 43% – Biden 42% – Kennedy 8%; Ipsos/Reuters: Trump 40% – Biden 39% – Kennedy 11%; Fox News: Trump 44% – Biden 41% – Kennedy 10%; Washington Post/ABC: Trump 43% – Biden 42% – Kennedy 9%; New York Times/Siena: Trump 42%-Biden 37%-Kennedy 8%]

TIME OUT: GOLD MEDAL GRUB

Eater: “It’s a daunting task to feed 15,000 people no matter what, but if food is fuel, the chefs feeding the athletes at Olympic Village are somewhat responsible for how these athletes perform. … But it’s not just baseline nutritional needs that need to be met — athletes are coming from all over the world, with their own culinary traditions. … The dining hall is this massive building that was a former electrical site. It’s transformed into six different restaurants, and each restaurant has a theme. You have a French quarter, Asian quarter, halal food. … Americans have been extremely vocal about what they want. They were more picky and sensitive about having a lot of gluten-free items, and a more vegetable-based diet. Also each delegation has rooms in the village to create their own things. The Australian delegation, they literally turned a space into a coffee shop and brought a barista.”

TRUMP’S CORONATION: MAGA, BUT MORE SO 

Wall Street Journal: “Donald Trump took the stage a humbled man, the bandage on his right ear testament to his recent brush with death. It had taught him, he said, that ‘the discord and division in our society must be healed, we must heal it quickly’  He told the story of the attack in vivid detail: the blood pouring everywhere, the crowd that stayed in place as the bullets flew, the feeling that God was present as he rose and raised his fist. The packed arena of Republican delegates hung on his every word, creating an intimate silence. And then, as if to reassure them that they hadn’t in fact lost the politician they all loved so much, he broke the spell and reverted to form, complaining about his persecution at the hands of the justice system and rambling for another hour about the usual witch hunts and fake statistics. It was a fitting conclusion to the jubilant Republican convention that ended Thursday in Milwaukee: a statement that the Trump of 2024 isn’t some wimpy, watered-down version—it is Trump, but more so. The political gamble of his third presidential campaign is that this, not some moderating concession to propriety, is what will win the election. And so far, it looks like a good bet.”

Trende: Vance VP pick has little electoral upside: RealClearPolitics: “One of the interesting things about this already-exceedingly interesting election was that Donald Trump had a variety of good potential vice-presidential picks. … Instead, he picked J.D. Vance, a vice-presidential candidate who adds absolutely nothing to the ticket. In fact, he might make things more difficult for Trump. … The MAGA wing of the Republican Party is happy with the pick. But those voters were already voting and were voting for Trump. … Kim Reynolds of Iowa might have helped to flip Minnesota or Wisconsin. Marco Rubio probably would have put away Arizona and Nevada and potentially put New Mexico fully in play. Glenn Youngkin could have made Virginia fully into a swing state. … Instead, Vance hails from a state that’s already firmly in the Republican coalition. … His performance in [Ohio] has been underwhelming, to say the least.” 

DeSantis, Haley bend the knee in Milwaukee: Los Angeles Times: “Former President Trump’s top rivals in the Republican Party lined up behind the 2024 nominee on Tuesday. … After questioning his abilities and integrity during the primaries, they gave full-throated backing to a man they once loudly reviled, saying that unifying behind their former foe was crucial for the nation’s future. … Haley said her message was aimed at voters who may have qualms about the former president. … ‘My message to them is simple. You don’t have to agree with Trump 100% of the time to vote for him,’ she said. … Haley and DeSantis apparently learned a lesson from Cruz — aka ‘Lyin’ Ted’ — whose failure to endorse Trump after losing to him in the 2016 GOP primary earned him boos at that year’s convention.” 

Elon backs Trump, commits $45 million a month in support: Wall Street Journal: “Elon Musk has said he plans to commit around $45 million a month to a new super political-action committee backing former President Donald Trump’s presidential run. … Other backers of the group, called America PAC, include Palantir Technologies co-founder Joe Lonsdale, the Winklevoss twins, former U.S. Ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft and her husband, Joe Craft. … Formed in June, America PAC is focused on registering voters and persuading constituents to vote early and request mail-in ballots in swing states. … Musk in March tweeted that he didn’t intend to donate to either Trump or President Biden’s campaigns. … But the billionaire Tesla CEO has gotten closer to the former president in recent months.” 

VIVEK ANGLES FOR VANCE’S SENATE SEAT

Wall Street Journal: “Vivek Ramaswamy, the biotech company founder who competed for the Republican presidential nomination, said he would be interested in a different role in elected office: serving as a U.S. senator representing Ohio. … An Ohio Senate seat would open up if Donald Trump wins the presidency because he has picked Sen. J.D. Vance (R., Ohio) as his running mate. A temporary replacement as senator would then be appointed by Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, also a Republican. ‘To be frank, I would strongly consider it if I were asked to serve,’ Ramaswamy told NBC News. … Ramaswamy also suggested that he would be interested in another role in government. … ‘My top passion is taking on the regulatory state,’ he said.”

After Menendez conviction, Dems push for a Kim replacement: Politico: “Prominent New Jersey Democrats see Rep. Andy Kim as the obvious choice to replace Sen. Bob Menendez following his guilty verdicts Tuesday. But Gov. Phil Murphy would not say whether he would name Kim if — or when — the Senate seat opens up. … Murphy said Tuesday he’ll choose a ‘temporary’ replacement for Menendez if he resigns or is expelled from the Senate following his conviction on all 16 counts in his corruption trial. … ‘If asked, I would accept,’ Kim told reporters. ‘But that is a decision for the governor.’ … The state’s influence could increase significantly based on its senator having just a couple extra months in office. … Menendez and his co-defendants face sentencing on Oct. 29.” 

Gallego doubles up Lake in 2nd quarter fundraising: Washington Examiner: “Republican Senate candidates in Arizona are showing lackluster fundraising numbers compared to Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). Kari Lake, a former Arizona news anchor turned political candidate, raised $4.3 million in the second quarter of the year. Her Republican opponent, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, reported a $422,000 haul. Gallego, the only Democrat in the race to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), raised $10.4 million in the second quarter of 2024. … With Lake’s modest haul, she enters July with $2.8 million in cash on hand and $812,000 in debt. Gallego enters the month with $9.2 million in cash on hand and no debt. … Internal polling also shows Lake with a leg up on Lamb by over 30 percentage points in the Republican primary. Arizona’s primary is July 30.” 

Michigan Senate race tightens as Biden falters: Cook Political Report: “If there was one race that was looking like a stronger opportunity for Republicans even before the CNN debate and looks even more in play now, it is Michigan. … [Rep. Elissa Slotkin] just reported raising nearly $6.5 million in the second fundraising quarter and heads into the fall with $9.5 million in the bank. But it’s Slotkin’s first time running statewide, and she doesn’t have the same built-in advantages veteran incumbents do. … The tightening presidential contest in the Wolverine State and the potential for a drop in base Democratic turnout could have a unique impact on the Senate race. … The particular danger for Slotkin comes in keeping Black voters in Detroit and elsewhere engaged, even if they aren’t enthusiastic about turning out for Biden.”

BRIEFLY

Poll: GOP leads in battleground Michigan district—Inside Elections 

House Dems raise $20 million in June, outpacing GOP—NBC News

Poll: Rep. Cori Bush down big as August primary nears—Washington Examiner

How Biden’s poor polling impacts frontline Democrats—UVA Center for Politics

WITHIN EARSHOT: WORDS THAT HURT 

“That speech was written last week. They literally loaded the wrong speech. I had taken that out. Instead I’d loaded about that we needed a somber moment in history.”—Sen. Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, blames the tech crew and teleprompter after calling Democratic policies a “clear and present danger” in his RNC speech Monday night despite bipartisan calls to cool the political temperature. 

MAILBAG

“While Harris polls slightly better than Biden, I think your key observation is that the public is less familiar with her. In a light less bright than that of a presidential campaign, she has demonstrated the capacity to make Biden look competent in comparison.”—Andrew Holmes, Port Orchard, Washington

Mr. Holmes,

What terrifies Democrats is that they have no way to know until they try. We can poll hypothetical matchups all the livelong day, but it’s only when voters face a real choice that we find out.

Democrats would love to be able to run an either-or campaign in which voters could take their pick, but that’s not how this works. It is entirely possible that Harris might actually lose ground, certainly initially, compared to Biden. And even if she only ran about as well as Biden is running, she’d probably still lose.

In 2020, Democratic primary voters thought Harris was too risky a pick to go up against Trump and preferred a known commodity in the former vice president. But now, they seem to be okay with the idea.

Part of that is the dynamic you describe in which she looks far better by comparison. Another part is that she’s had three more years of seasoning (though not all of it palatable).

If her party really did unite behind her, she’d certainly have a puncher’s chance. But what makes Democrats so miserable is that the only way to really find that out is to take a big, painful risk.

All best,

c

“Everyone who’s not sitting at President Biden’s dinner table is telling him to leave, that he’s losing the race to Trump and can’t turn it around. Mr. Biden looks at the polls and sees a dead heat. But the Biden part of this drama obscures what I think is just as damning on the other side.  The Red team is running against a guy who the majority of voters think is going to either be dead or a veg by the end of his term, a guy who looked more like 101 than 81 in his last debate, and their candidate still can’t put more than a sliver of daylight between the two. Shouldn’t the conversation in Republican circles be, ‘Why did we nominate this guy again? He might lose to someone people already think is Weekend at Bernie’s!’”—Craig Berry, Frankfort, Illinois

Mr. Berry,

It was Arthur Helps who wrote, “Nothing succeeds like success,” though after watching the Republican National Convention, I’m more in mind of Oscar Wilde’s version: “Nothing succeeds like excess.”

One of the most remarkable parts of the ongoing political drama in both parties is that nothing—not President Biden’s dismal debate performance, not an attempt on former President Trump’s life, not open rebellion against the incumbent by senior members of his own party—has seemed to have changed the character of the race for president.

Biden was losing by a couple of points nationally a month ago. He’s losing by a couple of points now. And an election in which the Democrat actually lost the national popular vote by any amount would always translate to a Republican Electoral College wave.

The race was pretty good for Republicans a month ago, and it’s pretty good now. But to hear them talk about it, the Trump train is now an unstoppable locomotive. And that’s what modern political conventions are for: project strength and confidence and rev up your disciples to go forth and conquer. It’s been 20 years since Republicans have felt this cocky, and while not entirely without reason, a lot of it is vibes and self-talk.

As we have discussed before, the fact that Trump has not opened up a huge lead on Biden is telling. You’re running against a guy with a job approval rating under 40 percent and you can’t crack an outright majority in a head-to-head? Shades of Hillary Clinton 2016 for Trump.

But, again, a 2-point plurality nationally would probably be good enough for something approaching an Electoral College blowout. Trump is winning, and now, we are told, spared by providence to deliver a smashing victory by the GOP. That belief has brought even staunch critics into the MAGA fold. Republicans are not saying “Why isn’t it better?” They’re saying “I can’t believe it’s this good!” 

All best,

c

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CUTLINE CONTEST: BEING THERE 

An interesting photo and an avalanche of news? Sounds like optimal circumstances for a Cutline Contest. So our winner had to face stiff competition. And, yes, it’s pretty mean by our standards, but we’ve entered a pretty absurd space.

“Facing a nearly-empty South Lawn, a blissfully confused Joe Biden thanks the White House gardener for attending, ‘The inauguration of my dear sister, Jill Biden.’”—Mike Wolfe, Prompton, Pennsylvania

Winner, Raise Your Hand if You’re Sure Division:

“Biden and Harris joyfully kick off their ‘We’re Not Sweating It’ campaign in the face of a mounting Trump advantage.”—Bill Ward, St. Augustine, Florida

Winner, Pilates Division:

“Two hands?”—Tim Maloney, St. Louis, Missouri

Winner, Real Fans Division:

“Doing the wave disrespects the players, Kamala.”—Paul Williams, Shaker Heights, Ohio

Winner, Bad Medicine Division:

“An apprehensive President Biden grapples with ‘white coat’ hypertension.”—Linda McKee, DuBois, Pennsylvania

Winner, Mounkian Division: 

“The identity trap transforms the prey into the predator.”—Rob Murdoch, Hillsborough, North Carolina

Winner, Intersectionality Division:

“Biden and Harris join hands in complete Venn diagram.”—Bob Goldman, Gilroy, California

Winner, Cameo Division:

“Throw your hands in the air like you don’t care”—Allen Mabry, Dallas, Texas

Winner, Trump’s Spotify Division:

“As the crowd dances to the Village People’s ‘YMCA,’  Kamala Harris unsuccessfully tries to get Joe Biden through the refrain by spotting him the first letter.”—Steve McCardell, Redding, Connecticut

Winner, Lloyd Webber Division:

“Rehearsals have begun for next year’s feel-good movie of the summer: Kamala! Here our title character practices her big number, ‘Don’t cry for me, California!’”—Bill Marsh, Pine Knoll Shores, North Carolina

Winner, Benny Hinn Division:

“Evangelist Kamala Harris exhorts the country to ‘HEAL!’ as Joe Biden continues to ignore exhortations from the other Big Guy.”—Amy Smits, Woodstock, Georgia

SHIRTS VS. SKINS

San Francisco Standard: “Justice went full frontal in the Castro last week when two nudists took down a man attacking a tourist on the street. The naked samaritans—Pete Sferra of San Jose and Lloyd Fishback of San Francisco—were letting it all hang out on a July 2 stroll through the neighborhood when they spotted a ‘crazy kind of pirate guy’ threatening a man with a blowtorch. … ‘My buddy Lloyd is a quiet, respectful guy,’ Sferra said. ‘But he didn’t waste any time and nailed the guy with a right hook.’ … Sferra emphasized that Fishback is the hero [but] Fishback declined to comment for this story as the nudist values his privacy. … ‘I hate seeing tourists experience that kind of stuff,’ Sferra said, adding that he wants to normalize nudity in the famously LGBTQ+ neighborhood but has been met with pushback. … ‘We just have a relaxed idea of what we’re supposed to wear,’ he said. ‘We just want to be seen as good contributing members of the community.’”

Nate Moore contributed to this report.