It’s entirely possible that Nikki Haley could not only lose badly on Super Tuesday, but that in one scenario she gets shut out of delegates completely.
In states like California, Virginia, Vermont, and Utah, where there are plenty of Haley-leaning voters, rules dictate that if one candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, that candidate sweeps every delegate. Proportional becomes winner-take-all.
Some of this is because of Republicans’ long-standing preference for fast, decisive primaries that protect the frontrunner. In a parallel universe, that frontrunner might have been someone like Haley: The best candidate for the general election who has serious problems with the party’s populists and culture warriors. When it was Mitt Romney or John McCain, that’s exactly how it worked. Once the well-funded mainstream pick had momentum, they could blow away the competition as the map widened beyond the boutique electorates of the early states.
Chris Stirewalt is a contributing writer for The Dispatch, the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, co-host of the Ink Stained Wretches podcast, and author of Broken News, a book on media and politics.
Please note that we at The Dispatch hold ourselves, our work, and our commenters to a higher standard than other places on the internet. We welcome comments that foster genuine debate or discussion—including comments critical of us or our work—but responses that include ad hominem attacks on fellow Dispatch members or are intended to stoke fear and anger may be moderated.
With your membership, you only have the ability to comment on The Morning Dispatch articles. Consider upgrading to join the conversation everywhere.