Meet the New Boss

Happy Thursday! Patrons at a Noodles & Company in Beloit, Wisconsin, were minding their own business this week when a six-point buck charged into the restaurant and made a beeline for the kitchen, sending customers fleeing. Health inspectors are getting craftier and craftier these days.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

• The Iranian Quds Force—the foreign operations arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—trained hundreds of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists prior to the October 7 attack on Israel, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. Israel has reportedly delayed its ground invasion of Gaza—at the request of the U.S.—to buy more time to negotiate the release of Hamas-held hostages and to deploy additional American air-defense systems to the region. 
• The upper house of Russia’s parliament voted on Wednesday to rescind the country’s ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty—which the U.S. signed but did not ratify, but by which the U.S. has nonetheless abided. Hours later, Putin oversaw regularly scheduled missile tests simulating nuclear strikes which Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said were aimed at “dealing a massive nuclear strike with strategic offensive forces in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy.” 
• Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana was elected the 56th speaker of the House of Representatives on Wednesday after House Republicans unanimously voted in favor of his candidacy. The House had been without a speaker for 22 days after several candidates tried and failed to rally the necessary 217 votes. Johnson, who was the vice chairman of the House GOP conference, voted against certifying the results of the 2020 election and filed an amicus brief in support of a lawsuit before the Supreme Court alleging widespread voter fraud during that election. 
• Judge Arthur Engoron, who is presiding over former President Donald Trump’s civil fraud trial in New York, fined the former president $10,000 for violating a gag order that forbade Trump from speaking about court staff. Trump was ordered to the witness stand on Wednesday to explain comments made to the press earlier that day, in which Trump had said Engoron was biased “with a person who’s very partisan sitting alongside him. Perhaps even much more partisan than he is.” Trump claimed the statement was about his former attorney Michael Cohen, and not the judge’s clerk, Allison Greenfield, who sat near the judge and whom Trump has previously posted about online. On the stand, Trump testified that Greenfield was “maybe unfair,” and that he thinks “she’s very biased” against him.
• Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration on Tuesday, alleging Customs and Border Protection officers intentionally “seized and damaged” concertina wire placed on the Texas-Mexico border at least 20 times since September 20 to help migrants illegally cross into the United States. A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson wouldn’t comment directly on ongoing litigation, but said that Border Patrol agents “have a responsibility under federal law to take those who have crossed onto U.S. soil without authorization into custody for processing, as well as to act when there are conditions that put our workforce or migrants at risk.”
• Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman of New York was charged with a misdemeanor on Wednesday for pulling the fire alarm in a House office building on September 30. He will be arraigned on the charge—for which the maximum sentence is six months in prison—today in a D.C. court, where he is expected to plead guilty and issue a formal apology to Capitol police.
• The United Auto Workers union (UAW) has reportedly reached a provisional deal with Ford, one of the “Big Three” U.S. automakers against whom the UAW has been striking in recent weeks. The agreement—which would need to be ratified by UAW members—includes a 25 percent pay increase over the course of a four-year contract, and could increase pressure on the other two automakers, Stellantis and General Motors, to make further concessions to end ongoing strikes. 
• At least 16 people were killed Wednesday night—and dozens more injured—after a shooter opened fire with an assault-style rifle at several locations, including a bowling alley, in Lewiston, Maine. Authorities are still searching for the gunman, a white male, and have ordered residents of Lewiston and nearby Auburn and Lisbon to shelter in place and lock down buildings and businesses. Lewiston public schools will be closed today, and Maine State Police officials are expected to brief the media this morning.
• Hurricane Otis made landfall in Acapulco, Mexico, on Wednesday as a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest such storm to ever hit Mexico’s Pacific Coast—though it had weakened over land during the day Wednesday. The storm, which rapidly intensified in the 24 hours before making landfall, knocked out power and internet in the region and triggered landslides along a major highway. Authorities are not yet sure what the death toll of the storm may be. 

House GOP: We Like (M)Ike!

If you’ve never heard of the 56th Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, don’t worry—you’re not alone. Republican Sen. Susan Collins revealed yesterday that she needed to Google the Louisiana representative to figure out who he was. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he’s yet to meet the man now second in line to the presidency, and neither has Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. 

Johnson’s election marked the end of three speakerless weeks, and House Republicans were eager to move beyond the shadow of dysfunction put on full display by repeated failures to replace defenestrated former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. But while the House GOP may have given themselves a reprieve from the late-night candidate forums and vote whipping for now, Speaker Johnson faces challenging weeks ahead as he tries to both fund the government and hold together a slim majority that remains divided and at the mercy of its hardline members. 

After winning the party’s nomination late Tuesday night, Johnson and his supporters tried to project a message of unity and competence. “This conference that you see—this House Republican majority—is united,” Johnson said during a press conference on Tuesday. “This group here is ready to govern, and we’re going to govern well.” The following day, the House voted 220-209 to elect Johnson speaker, with every Republican present voting for the Louisianian and every Democrat voting against him. GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik delivered the nominating speech for Johnson, describing him as “a friend to all and an enemy to none.”

If you haven’t been closely following the whirlwind of votes that preceded Johnson securing the gavel, we don’t blame you—here’s a quick recap. Following McCarthy’s ouster more than two weeks ago, GOP Majority Leader Steve Scalise narrowly beat out House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan for the conference’s nomination, but it quickly became clear that Scalise lacked sufficient support to win on the House floor, prompting him to withdraw his bid before the full body even voted. Jordan then became the new nominee, but the Ohioan—known more for his reputation as a caustic firebrand than as a unifying leader or productive legislator—also failed to gain the support of the whole conference after a hamfisted pressure campaign that alienated a number of members. Jordan lost three votes on the House floor last week by increasingly large margins (20 Republicans opposed him on the first vote, 22 on the second, and 25 on the third). This past Tuesday, Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota became the party’s third speaker-designate, winning a narrow victory over Johnson in a conference vote. But Emmer’s candidacy lasted only four short hours before he ended his bid without a floor vote—thanks in part to opposition from former President Donald Trump. This fever dream of failure left the GOP conference exhausted and paved the way for Johnson’s nomination late Tuesday night and his successful floor vote yesterday.

So, who exactly is the new speaker? Johnson has represented Louisiana’s fourth congressional district since 2017, and he served in the state House for two years before that. Prior to running for public office, Johnson was a lawyer who, in addition to maintaining his own private practice, worked for the Alliance Defending Freedom, a conservative Christian legal advocacy group. In that role, Johnson was tapped by Louisiana’s attorney general’s office to defend the state’s ban on same-sex marriage as well as its anti-abortion laws. Johnson’s work on religious freedom and social issues raised his profile among evangelicals and social conservatives, providing a seamless transition into conservative politics. “Some people are called to pastoral ministry,” he said in 2016 during his first congressional campaign. “I was called to legal ministry, and I’ve been out on the front lines of the ‘culture war’ defending religious freedom, the sanctity of human life, and biblical values, including the defense of traditional marriage, and other ideals like these when they’ve been under assault.” 

Once in Congress, Johnson developed a reputation as a staunch—though more reserved—social conservative, and saw Jordan as a mentor. He co-sponsored a bill to create a 20-week abortion ban, and opposed federal protections for same-sex marriage. He chaired the Republican Study Committee, a Republican caucus known for producing conservative policy proposals, and consistently supported Trump, serving as a member of his defense team during Trump’s first impeachment trial. In 2021, Republicans elected Johnson as vice chairman of the conference—a largely messaging position—making him the fifth-ranking Republican in the House.

Still, Johnson has spent less time in the House than any previous speaker in the last 140 years. He hasn’t chaired a full committee, though he chairs the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution and Limited Government. He also hasn’t demonstrated the fundraising chops that past speakers have used to help boost their party’s chances of securing and keeping a majority—the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with former Speaker McCarthy, has raised $80 million this election cycle. Johnson has only raised $600,000. 

But the Louisianian’s less-senior standing and relative anonymity in the conference proved an asset in securing support from both hardline conservatives and more moderate members. “Politics is like the fight business,” said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma when explaining Johnson’s success. “The longer you’re in it, the more you get beat up.” Johnson also hasn’t ruffled many feathers in the conference, thanks to his short tenure and his reputation for being a nice guy. “He’s a goober, but I dig that about him,” said Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee, one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy. 

“Anonymity or just not having been around long enough to create any rivalries or conflicts with people is certainly part of the equation of what worked out for him,” Brendan Buck, former adviser to House Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan, told TMD. “But it may just simply be that he’s a really nice guy, and he’s good at getting along with people.”

People who’ve worked with Johnson have confirmed his cordiality. “He is a nice guy and has a good heart,” Michael Herson, a Republican defense lobbyist who has worked with Johnson in his capacity as a member of the House Armed Services Committee, told The Dispatch. “He believes the Republican party should be a party of principles, policies, and ideas. He’s here to govern and make Americans’ lives better. He’s the perfect person to bridge the differences in the Republican conference.” 

Congeniality aside, Johnson did not ascend to the role without baggage. He played a significant role in Republican efforts to discredit and overturn the results of the 2020 election—a point House Democrats repeatedly raised on the floor on Wednesday. Johnson led the charge in 2020 to rally Republican lawmakers to sign on to an amicus brief he drafted for a Supreme Court case, brought by Republican attorneys general, to overturn the election results in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. (The Supreme Court ultimately refused to hear the case.) Johnson also lent credence to unfounded theories about hacked voting machines pushed by Trump and his legal team. “The allegations about these voting machines, some of them being rigged with this software by Dominion, look, there’s a lot of merit to that,” Johnson said in a November 2020 interview. “And when the president says the election is rigged, that’s what he’s talking about—that the fix was in.”

Johnson voted against certifying the election results on January 6, 2021. He focused less on fraud conspiracy theories to justify his skepticism, instead developing what he described as a “third option” for Republicans deciding between calling the election legitimate and fully embracing Trump’s conspiracies as their justification to block the certification. Johnson argued that state-level pandemic changes to election procedures made the slate of electors unconstitutional, even drafting a memo with talking points for his colleagues.

Such staunch denial of the 2020 election results led some Republicans to oppose Jim Jordan’s speakership bid just last week—though many are singing a different tune now. Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado previously opposed both Scalise and Jordan’s speaker bids over their waffling on whether or not the 2020 election was stolen, but didn’t apply the same scrutiny to Johnson. “We disagree on the certification of the election, but we’ve never had a harsh word,” Buck told CNN on Tuesday night. “I think people make mistakes and still could be really good speakers.” When asked whether Johnson thinks President Biden won the 2020 election, Buck said yesterday, “I have not gotten that promise from Mike. I hope he comes around to that point.” 

Johnson’s coming around might take a bit—when a reporter asked him on Tuesday about his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, Johnson ignored the question as the rest of his colleagues loudly booed. Meanwhile, hardline Republicans have hailed Johnson as one of their own. “If you don’t think that moving from Kevin McCarthy to MAGA Mike Johnson shows the ascendance of this movement and where the power in the Republican Party truly lies, then you’re not paying attention,” Rep. Matt Gaetz said yesterday. Trump also praised Johnson’s selection. “He will be a great speaker of the House, and we were very happy to have helped,” the former president said outside the courtroom for his civil fraud trial in New York. “He’s going to make us all proud.” 

But now that he has the gavel, Johnson has to tackle what sank McCarthy’s speakership: working with Democrats to fund the government. The continuing resolution currently keeping the government open expires on November 17, but there are signs the hardliners who opposed McCarthy on spending are willing to give Johnson more leeway, at least for now. “It’s a different situation now, there was a trust factor with leadership last time,” Rep. Scott Perry, head of the House Freedom Caucus, told CNN. “I think you’re going to see a different viewpoint now.” Gaetz also signaled he’d tolerate another stopgap funding measure. 

“He comes in with more goodwill, credibility, and breathing room than we might have guessed three weeks ago simply by virtue of how the process played out,” Liam Donovan, a lobbyist and former Republican senate campaign operative, told TMD. “That may be good enough to get him through the mid-November deadline unscathed. But eventually, there will be a need to do long-term funding.” (That’s not to mention aid to Ukraine and Israel—Johnson pushed back on additional aid to Ukraine before he was elected speaker).

When Johnson inevitably does have to make a deal with Democrats, rebels in the Republican conference might not be so supportive of their colleague. “Every speaker ultimately ends up in the exact same spot because there are certain realities that come along with governing, and it is the job of the speaker to see those through,” Brendan Buck told TMD. “It doesn’t matter how pure your conservative credentials are. You are going to have to get your hands dirty, do bipartisan deals, compromise, and very quickly, you will be seen as part of the same system that they all rebelled against in the first place. It is inevitable.” Johnson suggested yesterday he might give more power to House Freedom Caucus types, saying, “This speaker’s office is going to be known for decentralizing the power here.” 

But McCarthy also decentralized power in the conference, and it was insufficient to satisfy the hardliners. “Whatever becomes law will happen with significant Democratic support, by definition,” Donovan said. “Other than changing who sits in the big chair, it’s not clear why the problem causers will look more kindly when it’s coming from a bona fide conservative.” 

Worth Your Time

• Brendan Buck, a former aide to House Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan, has plenty of thoughts on someone as relatively new to the House as Mike Johnson ascending to the speakership. “Experience, it seems, is no longer an attractive attribute for a Republican speaker,” he wrote in Politico. “It was perhaps Mike Johnson’s short tenure in the House that allowed him to win the gavel. But now he faces a terrifyingly steep learning curve and almost no margin for error. Each speaker is different, and Johnson will come to develop his own way of running the House. In the short term, however, a neophyte speaker will naturally create a leadership void simply by nature of being new to the job. That might mean Steve Scalise, a fellow Louisianan who was just passed over for the top job, becomes the most powerful majority leader in decades—perhaps since Tom DeLay. While they may not say it this way, Republicans seem intent on wanting a weak speaker, and they are likely to get their wish, at least in the short term. Members have increasingly bought into the fallacy that it is the heavy hand of past speakers to blame for a failure to deliver spending cuts or other priorities, rather than a result of the realities of divided government. Members want both a hands-off speaker and big legislative progress. This is where Scalise can assert himself and shape the success of the Johnson speakership, much like DeLay once did to corral the House GOP. Indeed, maybe a weak speaker and a strong majority leader is what the conference actually needs.”

Presented Without Comment

The Hill: China Calls U.S. ‘Disruptor’ of Peace After Reported Beijing Military Buildup 

Also Presented Without Comment

Axios: Support for Political Violence Jumps in U.S., Survey Says

Toeing the Company Line

• In the newsletters: The Dispatch Politics crew examined the stakes of South Carolina’s GOP primary, Scott explained (🔒) why it’s hard to “weaponize” globalization, Haley detailed the challenges House Speaker Mike Johnson will face in the next few weeks, and Nick argued (🔒) Johnson’s election represents a MAGA takeover of the house.
• On the podcasts: Sarah and David French answer listener questions on Advisory Opinions, while Chris and David Drucker engage in some rank punditry on The Remnant in Jonah’s absence.
• On the site: Charlotte looks at whether recent attacks on U.S. troops in the Middle East amid fighting in Israel portend a broader regional war, and Kevin argues that anti-Zionism is really just antisemitism writ large.

Let Us Know

Do you think Speaker Johnson’s relative anonymity will help or hurt him as he seeks to forge consensus in the House?