Failure to Launch?

If you had “debating whether they would pardon their party’s presidential frontrunner” on your 2024 GOP nomination bingo card, congratulations!

We’re only a month or so into the contest in earnest and Republicans are having one helluva time getting underway. Former President Donald Trump is facing criminal charges for filching state secrets and then lying to investigators once he was caught, which one might think would be clarifying for voters looking for the best candidate to get back into the White House. But, so far at least, the party seems paralyzed. Is it likely to stay that way?

Let’s start with an essential caveat on the value of polling at this point in a presidential cycle and a sense of where we are now.

We’re about two months from the first scheduled debate, which is to say that we are still in what our friends in the business world would call the “soft launch” of the contest. Or in politics, we might better say the “Giuliani-Jeb phase,” in honor of the commanding summertime leads of the ill-fated frontrunners of 2007 and 2015.

Trump’s lead of some 30 points in credible national polls is triple what previous soft launch favorites have enjoyed. He’s the former president and the most famous person in America, if not the world. But it’s also true that most voters haven’t yet engaged in the contest. For a frame of reference, about 3.3 million people watched Trump in his CNN town hall last month. More than 30 million people will vote in Republican primaries next year. It’s still very, very early.

After several debates in the fall and early winter, the first contest for the GOP, the Iowa caucuses, are likely to be held some time in mid-January. The exact date won’t be set until next month, but January 8 seems like a good bet. The New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries will probably follow before the end of the month, with Nevada holding its contest February 6. 

Then there is expected to be a lengthy pause. The dates are still somewhat in flux because of some jockeying on the Democratic side, but the rest of February won’t see many delegates allocated at all. Then, on March 5, more than a third of all delegates will be decided in what is shaping up to be the mother of all Super Tuesdays, as voters in 15 states, including California and Texas, go to the polls.

Imagine yourself in mid-February. There have been four contests, and the surviving candidates are criss-crossing the country trying to either stage a comeback or deliver a knockout blow. After the coming seven months of arduous, expensive, and unpleasant work, campaigns will be in what amounts to a frantic, three-week semifinals round. What will that look like?

The candidates other than Trump are certainly warming to the task of attacking his many liabilities. With other potential indictments on the horizon, it seems extremely unlikely that the paralysis could persist for long, especially when his rivals are given the opportunity to confront him on a debate stage. 

Trump and Democrats are certainly hoping for what we’ve seen so far this year: Trump dominating and his top rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, wilting, giving up far more of his initial share of support to Trump than to the other entrants to the race. But history suggests that when voters begin to engage in serious ways about picking candidates this fall, things will shift.

Trump is certainly the frontrunner, and he may survive what promises to be a very ugly effort to stay on top. But as we think about what February may look like, it’s easy to see how opposition could harden and concentrate behind one or two of his rivals. 

Republican voters are not inclined today to take the Biden Justice Department’s side against a former president of their own party. But it’s certainly not unreasonable to think that in the frozen weeks of late winter 2024, they will take the side of another candidate.

It takes what seems to be a lifetime to get a nominating race underway, but then it’s over in a blink. Be careful of straight-line projections.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

STATSHOT

Biden Job Performance
Average approval: 42.2%
Average disapproval: 53.8%
Net score: -11.6 points 

Change from one week ago: ↑ 2.0 points                        
Change from one month ago: ↑ 1.2 points

[Average includes: Quinnipiac: 42% approve-54% disapprove; USA Today/Suffolk: 40% approve-54% disapprove; Fox News: 42% approve-58% disapprove; Monmouth: 42% approve-54% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 45% approve-49% disapprove] 

Polling Roulette

[Gallup surveys of U.S. adults, 2021-2023]

TIME OUT: HEY, ARNOLD’S

Gravy: “Around New Year’s 2023, news broke that Arnold’s Country Kitchen, a legendary Nashville restaurant, would close within the week. In response, the city descended into collective sadness and nostalgia. Here was another example of how we’ve lost sight of ourselves, people said, another old Nashville spot swallowed up by tall-skinny duplexes and construction cranes. At Arnold’s, you slid your tray along a steam table, choosing a protein and three sides to compile your plate. There was something easy to romanticize about Arnold’s, something about the great democracy of the meat-and-three that drew people close—judges and singers, accountants and laborers, all shoulder-to-shoulder, all queued up for the same roast beef. … But this isn’t a gentrification story. It’s the story of a smart family who made a bold wager, saw that bet hit, and then danced all the way to the bank. It’s a story of succession, inheritance, the weight of a name, and the cost of culinary greatness.”

BIDEN LETS TRUMP TROUBLES TAKE CENTER STAGE 

Politico: “Joe Biden and his top aides have taken a vow of silence on the federal indictment of his predecessor, Donald Trump—and have explicitly ordered the national Democratic Party and his reelection campaign to do the same. … [T]hat decision has some Democrats and allies worried that Biden could miss a chance to underscore the seriousness of the national moment as well as deliver a political blow to his top White House rival. … Those closest to the president are deeply wary of any perception that Biden is trying to influence the investigations. … [O]ther top Democrats and surrogates [could] take up the argument. But even that … would likely not occur for months, perhaps after a possible conviction, or after Trump has clinched the GOP nomination.”

Iowa, New Hampshire could embarrass incumbent: Axios: “President Biden is almost certain to be Democrats’ pick for president in 2024, but he might not win the first two contests of the primary season if they’re in the traditional first-to-vote states of Iowa and New Hampshire — a scenario that seems increasingly likely. Biden’s team is indicating he won’t be on the ballots in those states if they vote before South Carolina, his choice to have the first primary. Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire could defy Biden and move ahead with their contests—even as the party warns it will strip them of their national convention delegates if they jump the gun. That sets up a scenario in which Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or another long-shot Democrat could win those states — and embarrass the president.”

TRUMP PAC DROPS $20 MILLION ON DESANTIS IN IOWA

Des Moines Register: “The biggest spender thus far in Iowa is Make America Great Again Inc., the super PAC backing former President Donald Trump. … [T]he PAC has spent more than $20 million in advertising attacking his most prominent challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. … The bulk of that $20 million-plus has paid for TV advertising. The PAC has cut a number of ads criticizing DeSantis’ record on taxes and Social Security and Medicare (even with Trump’s prior support for similar stances on those programs). … The MAGA super PAC has also spent more than half a million on mailers and almost $200,000 on digital advertising. … [DeSantis PAC] Never Back Down has spent just over $1 million in Iowa on a range of services. More than half of that money has gone toward printing and postage costs.”

DeSantis nabs first gubernatorial endorsement: The Hill: “Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) endorsed Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis on Saturday, after several fellow Republicans from the Sooner State threw their weight behind the Florida governor’s 2024 bid earlier this week. … The Florida governor, who traveled to Tulsa, Okla. on Saturday afternoon, received endorsements from a former Oklahoma congressman and 20 state lawmakers on Thursday.”

NO LABELS WON’T MOUNT THIRD-PARTY RUN IF TRUMP LOSES

Politico: “The centrist political organization No Labels has defended its third-party presidential bid by insisting there’s a broad voter appetite for a candidate running in the political middle. But the group said it would likely exit the race entirely if Donald Trump doesn’t win the GOP nomination. … No Labels has been flirting openly with recruiting a moderate superstar like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to lead its ticket. … No Labels says it is looking squarely at voter attitudes in its consideration for a bid. ‘From the polling and modeling that we see today, if it’s any Republican other than Trump, those voters probably’ back the GOP nominee.”

2024 LOOMS AS MOST ONLINE CYCLE YET

FiveThirtyEight: “By the time DeSantis announced he would be kicking off his campaign on Twitter Spaces … it was undeniable: 2024 is shaping up to be the most online election we’ve ever seen. … While campaigns have had an online component for decades now… [w]e’re in a moment of transition, one in which candidates increasingly feel pressured to engage with and respond to every Twitter debate, TikTok microtrend and obscure meme in order to feel relevant. … The 2024 cycle is the culmination of a trend that’s been building throughout the last few elections. … This decentralized online ecosystem, combined with the heightened pressure on candidates to engage online, results in the somewhat chaotic stream of memes and internetspeak we’ve seen infiltrating this election. And it means the election is going to keep feeling extremely online as it progresses.”

BRIEFLY

Despite GOP recruitment pressures, Gallagher passes on challenge to Baldwin—Politico

Dodger great Steve Garvey ponders GOP California Senate bid—Los Angeles Times

Arizona Senate candidate Gallego faces residency questions—Politico

WITHIN EARSHOT: STALL TACTICS 

“There are 33 bathrooms at Mar-a-Lago. So don’t act like it’s just in some random bathroom that the guests can go into.”—Florida Rep. Byron Donalds defends former President Donald Trump’s decision to store classified documents in a chandeliered bathroom.

MAILBAG

“Oh boy, what a week. I only have one question. Many of the GOP opponents went to Trump’s defense. The same guy who they are trying to beat. I don’t understand why. I get the ‘please the base’ point of view. At the end of day, however, you’re defending the guy you’re trying to replace. Why not simply say, ‘I believe in our justice system and if he is not guilty, a jury in Florida will rule in his favor.’ Or even, ‘President Trump thought Hilary should face some penalties for breaking our national security laws. He has been accused of the same thing. Justice will be served.’ All they end up doing with their defense is reminding voters that they can actually have the ‘real’ Trump as opposed to the pale imitation some are offering. I just don’t get it. They are all but handing Trump the nomination and quite frankly another GOP presidential loss.”—Earl King, Colts Neck, New Jersey

I wouldn’t be so sure they won’t, Mr. King! There are already some signs that they may embrace parts of your argument. Republicans’ resentments toward the Department of Justice are deep and profound and not entirely without merit. The handling of the Hillary Clinton investigation in 2015 and 2016 and the shoddy work in the Trump-Russia probe will go down in history as serious failures. We could go back to the Clinton-era catastrophes at Ruby Ridge and the Branch Davidian compound, or the many misdeeds during the tenure of J. Edgar Hoover. FBI Director Christopher Wray and Attorney General Merrick Garland are no doubt being unfairly maligned by Republicans in Congress, but given the many lapses of the past, at least a little circumspection is possible. The problem, of course, is that reasonable doubts about the proper exercise of government authority can quickly give way to dark conspiracies and radical rhetoric. Republican voters have for too long been indulged in this kind of thinking by politicians looking to find convenient villains to blame. But I see from a number of candidates now a willingness to acknowledge the severity and legitimacy of the charges against Trump and a shift in the discussion. What happens next, though, will depend on whether voters are ready to live in the real world, not the ability of politicians to lead them there. As the saying goes, “When the student is ready, the teacher will appear.”

You should email us! Write to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name—at least first and last—and hometown. Make sure to let me know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the learned Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

CUTLINE CONTEST: TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT 

The Cutline Contest at its best is about writing to the picture before it is about the news. When you put them both together, blammo. And with this week’s amazing photo of the first family, contestants had a great chance to test their skills. The first lady is speaking to the president, who clearly looks concerned. Hunter Biden looks smugly satisfied, while his sister, Ashley, appears pensive. This week, one of our hall of fame contestants won again with her own lip reading of the situation. 

“They’re talking about moving back in.”—Linda McKee, DuBois, Pennsylvania

Winner, Stealers Wheel Division:

“Man, Quentin Tarantino’s reboot of Reservoir Dogs is WEIRD!”—Tripp Whitbeck, Arlington, Virginia

Winner, Article II Division: 

“He said, ‘Pardon me.’ Did he bump into you? Or was he talking about something else?”—Mike Wolfe, Prompton, Pennsylvania

Winner, On Topic Division:

*In best Don Corleone voice* “I’m gonna give them a defense they can’t refuse.”—Joel Simansky, Alton, Illinois 

Send your proposed cutline for the picture that appears at the top of this newsletter to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM. We will pick the best entrants for each week and an appropriate reward for the best of this month—even beyond the glory and adulation that will surely follow. Be hilarious, don’t be too dirty, and never be cruel. Include your full name and hometown. Have fun!

WONDER WHY THEY DIDN’T LIKE HIM?

Independent: “A Belgian man has explained why he faked his own death and turned up to his ‘funeral’ in a helicopter, to the shock of his loved ones. David Baerten, 45, claimed he carried out the elaborate ‘prank’ to teach members of his family a lesson about the importance of staying in touch with one another. Baerten … told French chat show Touche Pas a Mon Poste (TPMP) that he orchestrated the stunt because he felt ‘unappreciated’ by some of his relatives. … Footage shows the mourners watching as the helicopter landed in a field and a door opened. It then cuts to a clip of people surrounding Baerten, with more walking towards him, to hug and greet him. … The prank did not sit well with viewers and many people criticized Baerten for being ‘cruel’ to his family. … Baerten said he was ‘hurt’ because he ‘never gets invited to anything’ by his family members.”

Chris Stirewalt is a contributing editor at The Dispatch, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, the politics editor for NewsNation, and author of Broken News, a book on media and politics. Nate Moore and Jae Grace contributed to this report.